Accuracy of forecasts and weather

Accuracy of forecasts and weather

DescriptionIt is my impression that most people, believe that weather forecasts are not very reliable. The truth is that they are, indeed, very reliable. It could be
that people tend to remember the bad forecasts, the ones that mess up their wedding planning or family picnics. The 90% of all forecasts that are right on are pretty
much ignored. As background I would ask that you read the following webpages, not all of them, but enough to get a good taste:Accuracy of Weather Forecasts in
TimeWeather Forecasts – Just How Reliable Are They?How Accurate are our Public Forecasts? How Far Ahead Should I Check the Weather Forecast? (link
following)http://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/climate-weather/storms/check-weather.htmThe Weatherman Is Not A Moron! – OK, this is for you science geeksNow, here
is a very interesting site I would like you to look at in some detail – a consulting firm named Forecast Watch. These folks make a very good living by providing
short-term forecasts to a variety of clients. Now, go to Forecast Advisor, which is built from their database. Here you can see an evaluation of forecasts from several
well known forecasting agencies (listed below), and a comparison of their accuracy for any location in the United States. For example, enter the name of a city and
state in the search box. This takes you to a very interesting analysis of forecasts by those several agencies. Some of you will find this absolutely fascinating and
will dig deeply into the options on this site. Some of you will take a quick look, your eyeballs will start spinning because of all the data, and you will hit the
delete button. No matter; use it as you will. The point is that forecasts are a tricky business and a lot of time is devoted to analyzing their reliability. Your
assignment is to analyze that reliability with a very small sample size. So – here we go:Your Assignment
Be sure you have read the foregoing introduction and embedded links.
Select any city in the country (or anywhere in the whole wide world) for which you will analyze the daily forecast for a minimum of three consecutive days. You might
want to use the Forecast Advisor website to make your selection. Please do NOT use any locations in northwest Oregon or southwest Washington. Too familiar. Expand your
horizons!
Follow the forecast and the actual weather at your location from at least three of the forecasting agencies. You can use the list at the bottom of this page to select
three agencies, but you are not restricted to these. Keep careful records for three days.
Prepare an essay of at least 450+ words in which you do the following:Write a short introductory paragraph in which you state the purpose of your “research.”Identify
the location you selected for the analysis and the names of the three forecasting agencies you choose to use for this analysis.Describe your results in some detail;
comparing the forecast with the actual weather that occurred.Write a short final paragraph in which you summarize and reflect upon your findings.Post this essay (cut-
and-paste) to your group on the Discussion Board.Final Note: June 7 is the absolute due date, giving you extra time here at the end of the term. However, I strongly
encourage you to get at it sooner rather than later as soon as you have read Chapter 9. Also, remember that you may replace your lowest grade from all the
assignments/quizzes this term with a perfect 20. This assignment is a good chance to get a perfect 20, and therefore replace that quiz you really spaced out on earlier
in the term. Eh?Weather Forecasting Agencies and Services
National Weather ServiceUSA TodayThe Weather ChannelAccu-WeatherWeather UndergroundWeather BugCustom WeatherForecaPersistence
FOR YOUR ASSIGNMENTS TO BE DONE AT A CHEAPER PRICE PLACE THIS ORDER OR A SIMILAR ORDER WITH US NOW