What Will be Tested In Online Topic Three Test, OLT-3?

The material tested in OLT-3 will be:
1. Lectures: Topic 3 lectures, i.e. Lectures 7, 8, & 9 2. Topic Notes: Chapter 3 of Topic Notes. 3. Text chapters 12, 14. 4. In detail, you will need to: (i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv) (v) (vi)
(vii)
Know how to compute the probability of certain outcomes in random experiments such as rolling a die or 2 dice, drawing balls from a bag, flipping a coin: e.g. the chances you toss at least one Head in 3 tosses of a coin, chances you draw a Red ball from a bag of 3 Red, 4 Green etc. Understand the differences between Classical, Frequentist & Subjectivist notions of probability Know what is meant by the Principle of Indifference and which of the notions of probability in (ii) it applies to Know what Base Rate Neglect is. Understand the core concept of Conditional Probability, in particular: Be able to distinguish between Inverse Probabilities, i.e. between Pr(A|B) and Pr(B|A). Understand how Frequency Trees can be used to efficiently represent frequency data, in particular: (viii) Know what is meant by True Positive v False Positive; True Negative v
(ix)
(x)
False Negative. Be able to identify the False Positives and False Negatives on a Frequency Tree (FT). Be able to use information in (viii), (ix) to compute conditional probabilities — e.g. the probability Alf has high Blood Pressure given he is feeling dizzy, Pr(H|D) from FT data listing cases of subjects with H who experience dizziness & subjects without H who feel dizzy. NOTE: Practice Quiz Three, PQ3, is a very good guide to OLT-3 in form and type of questions asked. So make sure you attempt PQ3 at least once before doing OLT-3!

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